Mumbai is one of the largest agglomerations and the fastest growing city in the Indian Subcontinent. The trade, transport corridors, business hubs and commercial growth have been catalysts of the overall development of the city.
The current population of Greater Mumbai as per 2011 Census stands at 12.44 million. In spite of unforeseen migration patterns and birth rate projections the population is expected to dip by 1 million by the end of 2034. However the future growth of the City for the period 2014-2034 has been envisioned both from an economic perspective as well as from demographic projections. The economic projections give a general direction as to dominant and emerging sectors while the demographic projections, comprising of the projected population, projected household size, and projected employment, would form the basis of estimations of future spatial demands for the DP 2034. Mumbai’s economy, in terms of GDP in current prices, has been growing at an average of 13% over a 13-year period from 1993-94 to 2010-11. Its share in India’s GDP has been steady at around 3%.
Is there a shortage of housing in Mumbai? How does one estimate it? How many houses does the city need to build in the next 10 or 20 years? Just recently, the Maharashtra state housing minister announced that the state government will build 11 lakh houses in Mumbai – 5.5 lakh in the next 5 years. This beats the Maharashtra draft housing policy target of 7.9 lakh houses for Mumbai. In DP-1967 large tracts of land were reserved for Public Housing and Housing the Dishoused (PH / HD). However, these lands could not be acquired for developing public housing. Realizing the impossibility of large scale compulsory acquisition, in DP 1991 the plots reserved for Public Housing/ High Density Housing/ Housing for dishoused are allowed to be developed by landowner subject to handing over of 40% of the built up area in the form of tenements of 269 sqft. The restrictive tenement density of 500 tenements/ha is insisted with a condition of 50% tenements of size 25 sqm on the plot. Prior to 1991 under the Urban Land (Ceiling and Regulation) Act 1976, surplus vacant lands were exempted from acquisition if the landowners agreed to develop smaller dwelling units less than 40 sqm in area.
However, experience shows that such smaller dwelling units did not reach the intended beneficiaries. In many cases they were combined into bigger units and allotted to higher income households. This was on account of inadequacy of housing across the income groups and scarcity of development rights in the market on account of severely restricted FSI. On account of the proposed rationalization of FSI, such scarcity of development rights will no longer persist. This offers an opportunity to revisit the provisions of affordable housing in the DCR. Under the present DCR there are provisions for rehabilitation of existing slums but there are no provisions for ensuring affordable housing for the growing population. Moreover, in the current SRA model existing slum dwellers are accommodated in less than 50% of slum area making the slum rehabilitation extremely dense. At present 41.85% of the population occupies only 8.18% (33.96 sqkm) of the total planning area (415.05 sqkm). Post-rehabilitation the slum population is expected to reduce substantially. What is therefore required is to ensure a steady supply of affordable houses spread over wider area that could reduce the further densification of the slums.
In the DDP 2034 MCGM has proposed several measures wherein the affordable housing stock will be created.
1. By proposing affordable housing scheme by given additional FSI.
2. By increasing slum redevelopment housing FSI to 4 instead of 3
3. Increasing the FSI for MHADA Scheme.
4. Including No Development Zone in development zone which is turned as “Special Development Zone” which shall also aid in the demand of affordable housing stock.
5. Increasing the TDR potential accordingly to the road width.
6. Allowing majority of the reservations proposing in DDP 2034 developable reservations including R.G. and P.G. area. (under accommodation reservation)
To generate an impetus of employment opportunities the DDP 2034 aims at incentivising commercial development by increasing the FSI from 3 to 5. This shall also lead to the addition to the need of more homes, thereby increasing the demand of residential development.
Inspite of the predicted overall population dipping by 1 million by the end of 2034, The increased housing stock & commercial development shall have a definite burden on the infrastructure, however. The government has already planned the intensive Metro network, Mono Rails, coastal roads etc. to manage pedestrian and vehicular connectivity also creating transit corridors for development.
There shall be other impacts on the total drainage, water supply and electricity consumption of the city. Increasing built infrastructure shall also lead to a severe impact on the green unbuilt infrastructure of the city, which is vital for futuristic development of the agglomeration.
As the prerogative of most civic bodies for the healthy and progressive development of their counties, BMC is aiming to provide basic amenities including water, sanitation, primary health care and schools to slum dwellers till the time they are redeveloped.
Since, 41.2 percent of Mumbai’s population lives in slums, which occupies less than 10 percent of Mumbai's land, they lack basic necessities. New job opportunities and commercial infrastructure that has come up in the city has resulted in mass migration leading to unplanned squatter settlements that are in immediate need of rehabilitation and social amenities.
Mumbai has a mere 1.28 square metre of public open space per person which is way lower than most tier 1 cities in India. The new DP looks at removing all encroachments on the reserved open spaces. BMC is planning to earmark 33 percent of spaces as open space and balance the rest 67 percent will be utilised to rehabilitate the people who have encroached such places. As per the draft DP, the total demand for provision of open spaces in 2034 is 5,116 hectares, while the total provision is 3,525 hectares area marked as public open spaces that includes existing and the proposed reservations on the plots.
We are hopeful that the New DP shall not only give an impetus to the haphazard growth and development but shall also lead us to a horizon of a planned and organised real estate sector.
- Manoj Daisaria
Principal , Daisaria Associates.
+91 22 6111 0504
801, Skyline Epitome,Kirol Road,
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Mumbai – 400 086, MH, INDIA.